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Monday, December 18, 2006

The Bush administration, always bursting with embarrassing information, is famously addicted to the document-dump. I discovered long ago that the ritual dumps on Friday evenings had become so widely anticipated that the White House began experimenting with Thursday document-dumps. But any convenient day for burying the bad news will be welcome among this gang.

Given that Robert Gates was sworn in as the new Defense Secretary today, I naturally went looking to see what information the Pentagon would be flushing out the back. The website did not make it particularly easy to discover where the trash was buried. No mention on the "Today in DOD" or the "News releases" pages.

But eventually I smelled it out. I knew there would be something, somewhere. It's the week before Christmas.

Well today, it turns out, the Pentagon released to the public its quarterly report on the situation in Iraq, as mandated by Congress. The study is dated November 30; today, of course, is December 18.

I got the distinct impression that the Pentagon would prefer if the information did not reach the public at all this quarter. Quite apart from how disastrous the situation in Iraq has become, there's also the undeniable fact that you really have to work a little harder to get any use from the report.

For one thing, it is an excessively large PDF file, with several blank pages, unnecessary use of color, and an active graphic on p. 31 (on which see below). Although the document is only 53 pages, downloading it without high-speed internet access is nearly prohibitively time-consuming.

Perhaps the Pentagon was just in the mood to lavish attention on the report this time around? Well, you wouldn't know it from the huge gaps in the discussion of the statistics collected from Iraq. What is missing? The statistics, that's what. The numbers usually aren't reported (except in the rare cases where the statistics seem encouraging). Generally you have to eyeball the multi-color charts and graphs, and assemble your own estimates of what the statistics would have been, had they been actually reported in the report. Often, when the situation is particularly dire, the breakdowns are so vague that you simply can't get close to an accurate picture via these charts.

Here is a collection of highly remarkable and inconvenient facts about Iraq that I've assembled from cross-examining the report (none stated explicitly anywhere in the document, however):

p. 27: Since January, sectarian executions have increased more than five-fold.

p. 25: Average weekly attacks are up more than 100% since summer 2005. Civilian casualties are nearly 3 times higher than they were a year ago. And as high as that rate was in the previous quarter, it continues to mount.

p. 45: The number of Iraqi battalions in combat dropped slightly during this quarter.

p. 42: Although the number of Iraqi security forces is said to have increased this quarter, the majority are Ministry of Interior forces, which have a phenomenally high (but unspecified) rate of absenteeism. Therefore the increased numbers are illusory.

p. 17-18: Since the start of the quarter, both oil production and electricity generation are down. Electricity is being generated at a slightly lower rate than in 2004, though unmet demand has greatly increased. Oil revenues are down since 2004.

p. 27: In every region of Iraq surveyed in October, the proportion of respondents who said they were somewhat or very concerned about the outbreak of civil war was never less than 25% (and perhaps a good deal higher, given the vagueness of the chart). That's substantially worse than the attitudes in a survey from November 2005.

p. 29: Between August and October, the confidence that Iraqis expressed in the ability of their government to protect them from violence dropped between 30 and 80% in many provinces. In most of the other provinces that did not witness steep drops, Iraqis already had virtually no confidence in the government.

Another feature of this report, on nearly every page, is the determination to find some way, any way, to put a more positive spin on the grim news. Typically, that involves finding a wider context in which the information appears less depressing.

For example, on p. 24 the chart depicting the average daily number of attacks by province manages to find two ways to draw the reader's attention to the fact that some of the most dangerous provinces have relatively low populations (as if that made matters better). There's even a bizarre "Population weighted map" of Iraq poking like a stick-pin into the center of the chart.

And when the report describes "the nature of the conflict", it begins by focusing on foreign fighters. It even claims that "a few foreign operatives are responsible for the majority of high-profile attacks" (p. 21), whatever the heck that means. Two pages later, the section concludes with a long discussion of the "foreign influence". Hence an understanding of the conflict begins and ends with those foreign meddlers.

There is a rather curious chart on p. 28 reporting how Iraqis responded to the question "How safe do you feel in your neighborhood?" Evidently the questioners did not feel safe enough to conduct the survey in Anbar province, but let's set that aside. In nearly half of Iraq, large majorities reported that they feel very safe. Wonderful news, then. Except, isn't it the case that neighborhoods are often the last bastions of safety in Iraq, that neighbors have cooperated in protecting each other and barricading their neighborhoods against outsiders—at least until the ethnic cleansing reaches such an intense pitch that the neighborhood is cracked open and the terror descends full bore upon people? So the question appears to be framed in such a way as to maximize the appearance of stability in certain regions that are beginning to be torn apart.

And then there are the weird maps on p. 31, which rapidly evolve in front of your eyes to drive home the point that during the last half year the Iraqi Army has taken the "lead responsibility" for "counter-insurgency operations" in much of the country. Except it is very far from clear that that is true, however, whatever "lead responsibility" could mean. Only in the fantasy world of the Pentagon's upper echelons do Iraqi Army units actually "take the lead" in joint operations with US forces. Mostly, they just fade away whenever things get tight. And in any case, the new provinces added since May, which the active little map draws such attention to, are mainly those that have few Sunni insurgents to begin with.

There's plenty of information in this report with which you could build a very grim picture of the situation in Iraq. But once you have actually obtained a copy of it, you've still got your work cut out for you. The Pentagon isn't much inclined, you see, to catalogue or explain the significance of facts it would really rather you didn't bother yourself with too terribly.

Comments

7 comments

[1]
Smintheus, this is such good work, I think we should double your pay. What the heck! You also get an end-of-the-year 25% bonus. You don't even need to say thank you.

Posted by shirah at Tuesday, December 19, 2006 06:37:00

[2]
Notice I didn't say take the rest of the week off with pay. We want you to stay on the rascals.

Posted by shirah at Tuesday, December 19, 2006 06:38:31

[3]
Smintheus, a couple comments on stats.

When I have analyzed political documents and their use of statistics, one thing I find is a tendency to change or fudge what a unit of measurement means. Here are a couple examples.

On p.31 the table is entitled: "Current Number of Trained* Iraqi Security Forces" However the * footnote completely undercuts any significance that figure has: "* These numbers are not the same as those present for duty."

Second, I suspect they are making changes in statistical unit of measurement as it suits them - e.g., number of units v. number of personnel within each unit or total numbers of police units.

Third, look for choice of baseline. I didn't catch any in my quick look, but I have found problems with baseline figures are common in political reports. That is, choosing a baseline that gives the greatest possible evidence of improvement or whatever it is you want to show, rather than one that makes sense.

Posted by shirah at Tuesday, December 19, 2006 06:54:39

[4]
I think these two paragraphs are a particularly damning admission, but no surprise given what we know. This part could be subtitled - Hooray for Illegal Militias!:

p.19
"Militias and Other Armed Groups

"A number of militias and illegal armed groups operated in Iraq before 2003. However, the Iraqi Constitution prohibits “the formation of military militias outside the framework of the armed forces.” Similarly, the Transitional Administrative Law and Coalition Provisional Authority Order 91 specified that the only legal armed groups in Iraq were Coalition forces, the ISF, and private security companies operating in accordance with Iraqi law. Coalition Provisional Authority Order 91 established a framework that recognized seven militias that had fought against the Saddam regime and provided incentives for them to disband. In early October 2006, Prime Minister Maliki stated that political parties should eliminate their militias or leave the government. However, personnel with sectarian agendas remain within key ministries, especially the Ministry of Interior. In addition, rivalries for control of key resources and the central government’s limited influence outside Baghdad undermine the Government of Iraq’s ability to disband the militias.

"Despite these legal and political prohibitions, militias and other small armed groups operate openly, often with popular support, but outside formal public security structures. These militias provide an element of protection for the populace, generally on a sectarian or political basis. This is especially true in areas where there is a perception that the Government of Iraq is unwilling or unable to provide effective security for the population. Some militias also act as the security arm of organizations devoted to social relief and welfare, lending these armed groups further legitimacy. Their continued existence challenges the legitimacy of the constitutional government and provides a conduit for foreign interference. Controlling and eventually eliminating militias is essential to meeting Iraq’s near- and long-term security requirements."

Posted by shirah at Tuesday, December 19, 2006 06:56:41

[5]
See Icbo's comments on Daily Kos - http://www.dailykos.com/com... and then this is my reply:

I meant to check and compare numbers polled but forgot to.

I wonder whether they grouped questions together that were actually asked separately and/or even dropped categories, which would then inflate the % remaining.

I've seen both these tricks used plus mischaracterizing what people said and carefully picking the respondents. It must be quite a trick to get people to answer given that there must be some concern that the answers might go straight to the folks who carry you away in the middle of the night never to be seen again.

One other trick is to ask people's opinions and to use those opinions as standing for reality.

Posted by shirah at Tuesday, December 19, 2006 09:33:09

[6]
shirah, I think you're suspicions are right. On a first reading, the Pentagon appears to be using a lot of dicey statistical tricks to package the disaster in Iraq so as to give the impression that things are falling apart slowly, rather than quickly. I wish I had time to chase down all the studies, compare the survey methods and their points of reference, and so forth. But I imagine that that is precisely the kind of thing at which Sen. Levin's committee will excel, when they sink their teeth into this transparently manipulative report.

And let's not forget that the things it does not bother to report, to survey, and to investigate are perhaps more important than what it does address. The things it skates over may be a lot more telling than some of the trivial things it stops to focus on.

For example, I remember precious little in it about how the lives of Iraqi women have deteriorated terribly in the last year. How do you measure the fear of appearing outdoors? This report doesn't seem to have even tried. That's a salient fact.

Posted by smintheus at Tuesday, December 19, 2006 22:04:55

[7]
Thank you for mentioning the plight of Iraqi women. How would we in the US take it if suddenly all women dared not go out in public, dared not go out unless they were covered in black robes (and in 120 degree temperatures)?

We easily dismiss this as irrelevant, assuming that all Arab countries naturally work this way.

But not so long ago this was definitely not the case in Iraq.

Posted by shirah at Wednesday, December 20, 2006 05:55:17

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